If the idea was to garner AIADMK votes with or without the three faction leaders after the party broke ties with the NDA, it may not work after all, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
For now, Edappadi K Palaniswami is in the saddle in Tamil Nadu, and firmly so. Both inside the party and the government, he has made OPS a yes-man, as the latter used to be under Jayalalithaa, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
What will a split in the AIADMK mean for Tamil Nadu?
'If he has not achieved 'Congress mukt Bharat' even now, the question of his creating a 'DMK mukt Tamil Nadu' does not arise,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
According to DMK, the voters are already consolidated on ideological lines, hence the impact of anti-incumbency, whether against the BJP Centre or the DMK state may not be too much, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
It should not surprise anyone if either of the contending parties in the 'TN speaker's case' comes up with a submission for referring the matter of 'speaker's powers' to a Constitution Bench. In political terms it could buy more time for the Edappadi camp, to settle down and stabilise itself, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Stalin still enjoys a lot of sympathy and empathy as someone wishing well for the state, but not full-throated support as in 2019 and 2021, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'One thing is clear from what happened last night; both sides are being manipulated by the same party with a lot of wrong inputs.' 'I see a hand in Delhi doing the puppet act on both sides.'
BJP veterans whom K Annamalai has reportedly sidelined are upset over his 'immature' way of handling allies, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
R Rajagopalan on why September promises to be a crucial month for Tamil Nadu.
While there is likely no bar on Jayalalithaa meeting with Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and his cabinet colleagues, she may not see senior government officials or see official files.
Special Public Prosecutor B V Acharya has advised the Karnataka government to file an appeal in the Supreme Court against acquittal of former Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa and three others in the disproportionate assets case, saying it was a "fit case" to do so.
'Did you not see it on TV?' 'He blessed Sasikala and comforted OPS.'
The EPS camp believes that the BJP was already arm-twisting the AIADMK into conceding more seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections 'than they deserve' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP and the AIADMK are unable to sort out ideological differences, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is a sudden realisation in party circles that prolonged court cases could damage its standing, both among the cadres and voters, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'They are going to be clubbed with the Lok Sabha elections which are six months away.' 'These people who are ruling Tamil Nadu know very well that they cannot win another election.'
The BJP has nothing to lose after a point. For the DMK it is a difficult choice, as it would not want to give too much of space to a 'national party' lest the 'Dravidian duel' of the past decades should be lost forever, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Neither the ruling DMK nor the fractured AIADMK Opposition anticipated that an assembly by-election would put them both to test, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK leadership may now have to deal with a demand for more seats from its Congress ally in the Lok Sabha polls, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
For V K Sasikala, election as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam legislature party leader to pave her way to become the chief minister, marks continuance of the legacy of late Jayalalithaa who also held the two posts, allowing her to wield complete control over the party and the government.
Though another 75 candidates are in the fray, the Elangovan-Thennaruasu fight has become a prestige battle for the DMK and AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the history of the trial proceedings, and the documents that the judges and lawyers in the appeal courts have to read at every stage, Jayalalithaa's bail plea, when moved, will take time to be decided, placing a question mark over the party's electoral prospects in 2016.
Cries of "Amma" rent the air as a sea of humanity thronged the Rajaji Hall grounds on Tuesday to pay their last respects to AIADMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, whose body lay in state in Chennai where normal life virtually came to a grinding halt.
The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
As a loyalist who would run to her with every little matter, he realises it is time he comes into his own.
EPS' real test will commence with a decision whether or not to patch up with OPS and on what terms -- and then, to decide whether or not to have the BJP for an electoral ally, come 2024, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
It will be the year of preparation for the electoral test in Uttar Pradesh, due in 2022. But before that, the West Bengal Assembly election will set the mood for the rest of 2021.
'As she has been sentenced to 4 years in prison, her disqualification period begins after that for 6 years, totaling the next 10 years of her life, which may indicate that her legislative career in politics is over for the time being.'
The case of the two Shiv Sena factions for legitimacy and the party symbol, 'Bow and Arrow', is now before the Election Commission. Whichever way the EC findings go, the other can be expected to move the Supreme Court. They would need a final verdict before the parliamentary polls, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
In a week from now, December 21, voters in R K Nagar in Chennai will decide who their MLA will be.
'I can only say that I will put my best foot forward,' Deepa Jayakumar tells Rediff.com's A Ganesh Nadar.
If Tamil Nadu BJP President K Annamalai bought it in 2015, did he get prior approval from the Union home ministry, and did he include it in his annual wealth returns, sections of the media want to know. N Sathiya Moorthy on the curious case of the 'Rafale' watch.
Thousands of people hailing 'Puratchi Thalaivi Amma' (Revolutionary Leader Amma) walked with the cortege.
O Panneerselvam is the first chai-wallah to become chief minister in the country. Gujarat's Narendra Modi, the better-known chai-wallah to become chief minister, followed Paneerselvam around a fortnight later in 2001. The parallel should end there, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'He was doing so well as the CM, which some vested interests didn't like.' 'They didn't like his stature growing day by day.'
'Going by his political conduct over the past 15 years since first becoming chief minister, he has made enough enemies among equals as friends and followers.' 'They could gang up and that could mean a lot for AIADMK politics to handle,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the 2015 bypoll in the same RK Nagar seat, she had declared total assets of Rs 117.13 crore.
To elect, or re-elect a chief minister, the AIADMK needs to call only the MLAs for a meeting. But to elect a new general secretary, it would have to conduct direct elections with all registered cadres participating and voting. And that is just the beginning of its problems, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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